On February 13, the host of the pro-government TV program “Imedi LIVE,” Giorgi Putkaradze, discussed a survey conducted by the Institute of Social Studies and Analysis (ISSA). He claimed that the survey results matched the outcome of the 2024 parliamentary elections. Specifically, he stated that the percentage of respondents who consider the government legitimate is the same as the percentage of votes the Georgian Dream received in the October 26 elections, according to the Central Election Commission (CEC).
Giorgi Putkaradze (47:15): “There was an interesting question about legitimacy, and when you calculate the final data, including the margin of error, the proportions are roughly the same as in the elections. If these respondents think similarly to the election results, then I don’t see what is debatable about this process at all.”
The claim made by the “Imedi LIVE” host about the coincidence of the ISSA survey and the CEC data is not true. In reality, according to the survey, only 39.2% of respondents consider the Georgian Dream a legitimate government, while approximately 41% voted for them (this figure includes respondents who were loyal to the Georgian Dream but did not answer the question). Notably, even considering the survey’s margin of error (±2.2%), these results are much closer to the exit poll data from the election day than to the CEC’s final figures (54%).
Giorgi Putkaradze, while asking a question to political analyst Ramaz Sakvarelidze, discussed sociological surveys and mentioned one that was “published a few days ago.” The journalist stated that opposition politicians were trying to ignore global developments and “continue the process with the old agenda,” and using various survey results, they sought to convince voters that what they were saying was true. Notably, the ISSA survey was published on February 10. Since no other public opinion surveys were released in February, it is clear that Putkaradze was referring to this specific survey.
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What Does the ISSA Survey Say About the Georgian Dream’s Support and Legitimacy?
With funding from the Civil Society Foundation and the United Nations Association of Georgia, the ISSA conducted a public opinion survey. Nearly 2,000 respondents were interviewed face-to-face between January 18 and 30. The margin of error was set at ±2.2%. The questions of the survey concerned ongoing events, including the election results and public trust in them, participation in protests, attitudes toward protest demands, and the country’s domestic and foreign priorities.
One of the questions focused on the legitimacy of the Georgian Dream’s government (p. 16). To assess perceptions of the October 26 parliamentary elections, respondents were asked whether they considered the Georgian Dream to be a legitimate government. A majority of the respondents, 47.8%, answered negatively, stating that the Georgian Dream is not a legitimate or lawful government. Meanwhile, 39.2% viewed the Georgian Dream as a legitimate government. Even if the survey’s margin of error is applied in favor of the Georgian Dream, at most 41.4% of respondents consider it a lawful government – a figure significantly lower than the vote share (53.9%) received by it, according to the final CEC results. Of course, direct comparisons between these figures are not methodologically sound; however, the conclusion aired on TV Imedi that the new survey confirmed the Georgian Dream’s election results is false.
The ratings of the Georgian Dream and the opposition are presented in the survey’s section on the assessment of the parliamentary election (p. 13). More than half of the respondents (51.3%) stated that they voted for an opposition political force in the October 26 parliamentary election, while 32% openly said they voted for the Georgian Dream. The remaining respondents did not answer the question. The survey’s authors note that among the 17% who did not disclose their vote, 9% demonstrated loyalty toward the Georgian Dream. If we add this 9% of Georgian Dream-loyal respondents, who did not respond to the question, to those 32% openly admitting to having voted for the party, the total support for the ruling party would reach 41%. Additionally, even if the survey’s margin of error is applied in favor of the Georgian Dream, the maximum possible figure that can be derived from this data is 43.2%.
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Are the CEC and ISSA Data Close in Terms of the Georgian Dream’s Rating?
In the days following the October 26 parliamentary election, discrepancies between the official results announced by the CEC and exit polls were actively discussed. The only poll that closely aligned with the CEC’s results was conducted by GORBI, commissioned by the pro-government TV channel Imedi. These discrepancies are often cited as evidence of electoral manipulation and the government’s lack of legitimacy. On the election day, three organizations conducted exit polls for different TV channels: Edison Research (for Formula), Harris X (for Mtavari Arkhi), and GORBI (for Imedi). The data of the exit polls and the CEC show different results for the Georgian Dream:
| Harris X | Edison Research | GORBI | Georgian Dream |
| 42% | 40.9% | 56.1% | 53.93% |
The ISSA survey data reflecting the voters’ choice of political parties and perception of the Georgian Dream’s legitimacy are more in line with the data from Harris X and Edison Research than with the CEC’s final figures or GORBI’s exit poll results. Therefore, the claim that ISSA’s survey confirms the CEC’s results and proves that the majority of the population views the Georgian Dream as a legitimate government is inaccurate.
During the election period, pro-government media and other actors frequently manipulated opinion poll results. An intensive discreditation campaign targeted the American polling firm Edison Research, which continued even during the U.S. elections. They attempted to damage the company’s reputation and increase distrust towards it.
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