On November 3, the government-affiliated television channel “Imedi” aired a segment on the program “Imedis Kvira” concerning Georgia’s parliamentary elections and the opposition’s contingency plans in the event of an electoral loss. In the segment titled “Instructions for Failure,” journalist Anuki Gumberidze claims that the blueprint for post-election actions in Georgia is outlined in a report by the McCain Institute. The show claims that a report published by Laura Thornton, Director of the Global Democracy Program at the McCain Institute, emphasized exit poll results as a central element for post-election momentum. It also discusses the exit poll commissioned by “Mtavari Arkhi.” According to the journalist, the organization adjusted the results to show “Georgian Dream” receiving 44.4% of the vote, surpassing the combined totals of four opposition parties. This information, however, was not disclosed by “Mtavari Arkhi” and was allegedly concealed.
“Imedis Kvira” manipulatively disseminates information concerning the McCain Institute and organization Harris X’s exit poll. 1) Harris X, using CEC data—such as voter age, gender, regional distribution, votes from overseas polling stations, and turnout timing—released an adjusted exit poll showing a 2% increase for “Georgian Dream.” However, the company emphasized that this data should not be considered final until the CEC resolves the statistical inconsistencies. 2) Mtavari Arkhi did not conceal Harris X’s final data. 3) Additionally, the McCain Institute report by Laura Thornton does not suggest that exit poll and parallel count results should incite post-election unrest in Georgia. The report references the exit poll only once, noting that both sets of data will be important to verify the results announced by the CEC.
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What information is included in the updated Harris X data?
For the October 26 parliamentary elections, the “Media Freedom Fund,” affiliated with the TV company “Mtavarmi Arkhi,” commissioned the research firm Harris X to conduct an exit poll. The results were broadcasted live on the “Mtavari Arkhi” immediately after the polls closed. According to these findings, the “Georgian Dream” party received 42% of the votes, while four opposition parties collectively surpassed the electoral threshold with a combined total of 48%.
Source: Mtavari Arkhi
Harris X surveyed over 12,000 individuals at 125 polling stations throughout Georgia. The exit poll released at 8:00 p.m. was only a preliminary result, reflecting responses from 10,300 voters as of 6:45 p.m. According to the final survey results, “Georgian Dream” received a rating of 43.7%.
On October 31, Harris X released an analysis of the final exit poll results. The organization highlighted an approximate eight-point gap (208,908 votes) between the Central Election Commission’s (CEC) results and the exit poll, as well as unusual, static data recorded at 27 polling stations. They further noted that some of the statistical data released by the CEC appeared implausible and difficult to believe.
Harris X revised its exit poll results using CEC data, incorporating factors such as voter age, gender, regional distribution, votes from overseas polling stations, and turnout over time. The weight adjusted data shows a 2% increase for “Georgian Dream,” raising its rating to 44.4%. This adjustment also impacted the ratings of certain opposition parties. The organization’s report states that “Georgian Dream’s” rating is calculated using CEC statistical data combined with Harris X’s own data, reaching the indicated level. According to the updated figures, parties that met the electoral threshold collectively hold 43%, with 0.7% invalid ballots and 2.7% of respondents declining to answer in the exit poll. The remaining votes were allocated to parties that did not meet the electoral threshold.
Harris X states that unless the CEC addresses the inconsistencies in its statistical data, the updated figures should not be regarded as the final result of the Harris X exit poll. The statement also clarifies that the analysis does not represent the actual vote share of “Georgian Dream” or other opposition parties. The analysis remains incomplete until the CEC provides an explanation for the statistical discrepancies in its data.
Source: Harris X
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Mtavari Arkhi did not conceal the final exit poll results
In “Imedis Kvira,” it is also claimed that the final exit poll results were concealed and not reported by “Mtavari Arkhi.” However, the results were actually covered in the 6 o’clock newscast on October 31, the main 9 o’clock newscast, and again the following day. Additionally, in the same program, the executive director of Harris X provided an explanation in an interview with “Mtavari Arkhi”: “We used the data published by the CEC, assuming its accuracy, and combined it with the results from our exit poll of over 12,000 respondents, also assumed to be accurate. We then adjusted this information based on turnout data provided by the CEC. Consequently, the Georgian Dream’s national result cannot exceed 44.4%. A result of 53.6% [CEC: 53.9%] is statistically impossible.”
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What does the McCain Institute’s report say about the post-election environment in Georgia?
On September 17, the McCain Institute released a pre-election assessment on Georgia, authored by Laura Thornton, director of the McCain Institute’s Global Democracy Program. The full report examines the pre-election environment in Georgia, addressing issues such as recently adopted discriminatory laws by the Georgian Parliament, the electoral system, party dynamics, and their pre-election campaigns, among other topics.
In the final chapter of the report, “Conclusions and Recommendations,” Laura Thornton examines the potential implications of the election and offers advice to Western leaders on how to proceed post-election. Thornton emphasizes that the results of exit polls and parallel vote counting will be crucial for recognizing the official CEC outcome. The report suggests that if the opposition wins, the West should support a peaceful transition of power. However, if the Georgian Dream wins again and the victory is validated by both international and local observers, European and American leaders should closely monitor the subsequent developments, including anticipated protests.
Parliamentary elections were held in Georgia on October 26. According to the official data from the Central Election Commission, five parties surpassed the 5% threshold and entered the 11th convocation of Parliament. “Georgian Dream” received the most votes, with 53.9%. The four opposition parties that entered Parliament, along with the president of Georgia, have questioned the credibility of the election, stating that it does not reflect the will of the people.
Following the elections, a variety of misleading information and manipulated visuals have been circulating on social media. “Myth Detector” is systematically investigating these claims.
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