On October 30, 2024, a statement posted on the “Society “Kartuli” (Georgian) Facebook page claimed that Edison Research consistently showed the ruling party’s ratings as 10-14% lower than the Central Election Commission’s final results. The statement suggested that the company’s purpose isn’t to reflect actual ratings in Georgia, but rather to manipulate them to give the opposition grounds to claim the election was rigged.
The statement was published by government-affiliated media outlets, MarshalPress and Imedi, and was also circulated on the Public Broadcaster’s website.
Society “Kartuli” manipulates comparisons between Edison Research’s study and CEC data. Before the election, Edison Research releases party ratings based on citizen polls, which include voters who may change their decisions. Notably, exit poll results conducted by Edison Research on election day usually align closely with official results, as they capture citizens’ responses immediately after voting. In previous years, the difference between Edison Research’s exit polls and CEC data has ranged from 1-5%, but in the 2024 parliamentary elections, this gap widened to 13%—a first.
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Party ratings in Edison Research polls
On October 23, the latest study on party rankings before the 2024 elections, commissioned by Formula and conducted by Edison Research, was released. In response to the question, “If parliamentary elections were held today, which party would you vote for?” the answers were distributed as follows: Georgian Dream – 34%; Unity (UNM, Strategy Agmashenebeli, European Georgia) – 18%; Coalition for Change – 14%; Gakharia – For Georgia – 11%; Strong Georgia – 10%, among others. These results were calculated using an allocation and weight adjustment. Allocation predicts a respondent’s vote based on their answers to other questions when they do not directly state their preferred party.
Edison Research also released survey results on October 4, September 27, September 19, September 13, and July 28 (1;2;3;4;5;). Party percentages in all surveys are calculated using an allocation and weight adjustment method. All surveys also consider the percentage of citizens who, on the question about party allegiance, indicate that their party choice may change. For instance, on October 23, 23% of respondents said they were uncertain about their choice and might reconsider
It is also noteworthy that the ruling party’s rating in Gorbi’s studies, commissioned by government-affiliated media, does not align with the final results calculated by the CEC. For instance, in Gorbi’s polls, 60.4% of respondents on April 10, 2024, indicated they would vote for Georgian Dream; on August 14, this was 59.3%; and on October 8, 59.5%. However, according to CEC data, the ruling party received 53.9% in the October 26 election.
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Edison Research exit polls and CEC results
It should be noted that Edison Research conducts its polling even on election day and releases exit poll results after the polling stations close. Comparing CEC data is more appropriate with exit poll results rather than preliminary party ratings, as exit polls reflect voters’ final choices.
Exit polls offer citizens insight into the likely vote counts for political parties and the anticipated CEC results before precinct votes are officially tallied. To gather this information, organization representatives survey voters at polling stations immediately after they have cast their ballots.
Edison Research has conducted exit polls for elections in Georgia over several years. We can compare the results of the 2012, 2018, 2020, and 2021 elections with CEC data. For instance, in 2021, Edison Research indicated that Georgian Dream would receive 51% of the vote, while the final CEC data showed 54%. In the first round of the 2018 presidential election, the difference between Edison Research and CEC results was 1%, and in the second round, it was 5% (1;2). For the 2020 election, the difference was 2% (1;2), and in 2021, it was 1% (1;2). Notably, Edison Research has included a margin of error with their data each year.
In the 2024 parliamentary elections, Edison Research’s exit poll, released at 8:00 p.m., indicated that the ruling party should have 40.9% of the votes. However, according to CEC data, Georgian Dream received 53.9%. This is the first instance of a multi-point discrepancy between the organization’s exit poll and the CEC’s results. Edison Research also issued a statement explaining that this 13-point difference suggests possible manipulation.
Therefore, the Central Election Commission’s data on party election results should be compared not with pre-election party ratings published by research organizations but with exit polls. Comparing Edison Research’s data released before October 26 to CEC percentages is thus misleading. In previous elections, the difference between CEC results and Edison Research’s exit polls ranged from 1 to 5%, making the 2024 parliamentary election the first instance with a 13% discrepancy.
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