On November 8-10, pro-government media outlets, including Imedi (1;2), Rustavi 2 (1;2), POSTV, NewsHub, Prime Time, Info 9, Reportiori, Tia.ge, Exclusive Media, Radio Sivrtse, Ai Politika, and InfoPostalioni.com, as well as pro-government expert Gia Abashidze (1;2), People’s Power member Davit Kartvelishvili, and Georgian Dream’s Kakheti regional coordinator Beno Gegechkori, circulated claims that Edison Research’s polling data on the U.S. elections did not align with the official results. Some of the sources listed above allege a 6% discrepancy between Edison Research’s data and the official election results concerning Kamala Harris. Others suggest that the organization’s exit polls in key U.S. states had predicted a win for Kamala Harris.
Former Parliament member Koka Guntsadze discussed this issue on Imedi Live, claiming that Edison Research manipulates exit poll data in both the United States and Georgia.
The claim alleging that the Edison Research exit poll was 6% different from the US election results is disinformation. In fact, the organization’s data has been updated several times because they released exit polls in three waves on Election Day. The numbers that the media rely on are the first exit polls, the data of which has since been changed. Edison Research’s updated exit polls also did not indicate a victory for Kamala Harris in the decisive seats. As of 06:30, Donald Trump had 279 Electoral College votes, according to the Edison exit poll.
In response to claims aired by Imedi regarding alleged inaccuracies in Edison Research’s exit polls, the organization’s Executive Vice President, Rob Farbman, clarified that at the close of all precincts, the exit poll results showed both candidates at 50%. He emphasized that since Tuesday, Edison Research has accurately projected winners in over 600 election races without error. Farbman also highlighted a key distinction between the Georgian and U.S. elections, noting that the latter was conducted without fraud.
According to Edison Research, exit poll data is published in three waves on election day. According to their official website, the first wave includes interviews with early voters and interviews conducted on the morning of Election Day. During the second wave, afternoon interviews are added, and shortly before polling stations close, the third wave adds mid-afternoon and evening interviews. “No exit polls results which can be used to characterize the winner of the election are published before all of the polls in that state are closed.” – We read on the website of the organization.
The percentages that pro-government media cite as exit poll results to support claims of Edison Research’s issues correspond to the initial exit poll data reported by the media. For instance, Reuters published the same figures on election night, November 6, at 02:40. However, the report clearly notes that exit poll results can change significantly between 5:00 p.m. on Election Day and the following morning.
This was actually the first exit poll published by the organization, and the data has been updated since. The fact that the percentages reported by Georgian media were updated is confirmed by a new article on Reuters’ website at 06:00. In this updated data, 45% favored Trump and 47% supported Harris. In a response to “Imedi,” a representative of the organization noted that the exit poll results were 50%-50% at the time the polling locations closed.
It’s also important to note that polling stations across states close at different times; for instance, the last polling stations to close were in Alaska.
Later in the night, media outlets reported on winning candidates in various states based on Edison Research data (1;2;3). For instance, on the morning of November 6, The Washington Post shared information from Edison Research indicating Trump’s anticipated victory in several states. On the morning of November 8, Reuters reported Edison Research data showing Trump’s win in Nevada.
Reuters also reported data as of 6:30 a.m. on November 6, summarizing different exit poll results and state-by-state winners. According to the table, Edison Research data at that time showed Trump leading in swing states like Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, with data for other swing states not listed. Edison’s data indicated that Trump held 279 of the 538 Electoral College votes, while Harris had 223 (with 270 needed for victory).
Later, media outlet reported Edison Research’s data published exit poll results (1,2) that illustrate citizens’ voting preferences based on factors such as gender, education level, skin color, age, and other characteristics. According to the data, 55% of men voted for Trump compared to 45% of women, while 53% of women voted for Harris compared to 42% of men.
Therefore, to support claims that Edison Research miscalculated the U.S. election results, the media references the initial exit poll data, despite the organization releasing exit polls in three waves. In subsequent updates, Trump’s vote count rose, and Edison Research also provided projections showing Trump’s anticipated victory in swing states.
Following the 2024 parliamentary elections in Georgia, “Myth Detector” also fact-checked the disseminated manipulation alleging that “Georgian Dream’s” rating in Edison Research’s studies is consistently 10-14% lower than the CEC’s figures, and is often used as a justification to label the elections as rigged. Read more in the full article:
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